[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041938
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-042145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KY/TN AND FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041938Z - 042145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...INITIALLY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN MO AND WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL IL. DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A 19Z-ANALYZED WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MO/NEAR STL...AND A SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENDING WEAK FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IL INTO WEST-CENTRAL KY...WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE RELATIVELY
NEBULOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION MAY EXIST...A PASSING MINOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SPEED MAX...AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE COLLOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS IN VICINITY OF THE
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENDING FRONTAL ZONE...WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY /1500-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT AND
40-50 KT MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.

SUPPORTED BY AN ASSORTMENT OF DETERMINISTIC/CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE...SCATTERED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS
WITHIN A NNW-SSE CORRIDOR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL/PERHAPS WEST-CENTRAL IL. THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY GROW UPSCALE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...INCLUDING THE MO BOOTHEEL VICINITY AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND SEVERE HAIL.

..GUYER/CARBIN.. 06/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   39089157 39999098 38538872 37848714 37448670 36728655
            36148744 36438951 37569088 39089157


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