[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 032202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032202
MSZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-032330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AR...WRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 345...

VALID 032202Z - 032330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 345 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IN NRN AR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARING
PROBABLE THIS EVENING. A DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE INTO PARTS OF TN/MS
IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASING
ACROSS NRN AR...AIDED BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION
ATOP A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CONFLUENCE AXIS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
FLOW WAS WEAK AND SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT ACROSS THE MS VALLEY...GUIDANCE
IS CONSISTENT THAT W/SWLYS AT 850 MB SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT
THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING CONTINUED SUSTENANCE OF A STRONGLY BUOYANT
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS. THIS SHOULD YIELD UPSCALE GROWTH OF ONGOING
CONVECTION...LIKELY INTO AN MCS /A SCENARIO DEPICTED BY RECENT HRRR
GUIDANCE AND INFERRED FROM THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD
BECOME DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 06/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36009396 36509344 36599273 36269047 35908880 35438850
            34858858 34198893 33938936 33899043 34189208 34719364
            35319391 36009396


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