[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241712
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-241845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NC...ERN TN...NRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241712Z - 241845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT REGION...AND THE ISSUANCE OF
A SVR TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF WW/S 509 AND 510.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS OVER SWRN VA HAVE CONGLOMERATED INTO A
MORE ORGANIZED LINE OVER SWRN VA...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE
RELATIVELY WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW/WEAKER DEEP SHEAR COMPARED TO AREAS
FARTHER NORTH...DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PERSISTENT
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP AMIDST 2500-3500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. AND...WITH DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG...DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE OF
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF A LARGER-SCALE COLD POOL EVOLVES. SVR HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36338364 36558309 36498210 36238154 36248029 36247930
            36227889 35257920 34638041 34428142 34468224 34858324
            35268377 35848389 36338364


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