[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221820
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-222045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SRN NC...NRN SC...NERN TN...FAR SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221820Z - 222045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY EXIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS A W/E-ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL NC TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS IS AIDING IN
CROSS-BOUNDARY BAROCLINICITY...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE WRN EXTENT
OF THE FRONT FROM NWRN NC INTO FAR SWRN VA IS COMPARATIVELY MORE
DIFFUSE...BUT ALIGNS WITH A CONCENTRATED BAND OF AGITATED CUMULUS
FROM WHICH DEEPER CONVECTION/STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO EVOLVE.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS OWING
TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. GENERALLY WEAK FLOW -- 10 TO 20 KT -- THROUGH
THE STEERING-LAYER PER AREA VWP DATA WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DRIFT EWD.
HOWEVER...SOME SWD-PROPAGATION COMPONENT MAY BE SUPPORTED BY LIGHT
SWLY SFC WINDS WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING AMIDST PW FROM 1.6 TO 2.1 INCHES
PER GPS DATA SUPPORTS MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS...AIDED BY
PRECIPITATION-LOADING PROCESSES. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK DEEP SHEAR...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED
WITH ANY SVR THREAT REMAINING MARGINAL...VERY ISOLATED...AND BRIEF.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   35027598 34197715 33857859 34508009 35068194 35508243
            35978263 36258312 36668318 36838275 36798210 36758085
            36328004 35847909 35527777 35447636 35027598



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