[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 200326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200326
TNZ000-KYZ000-200430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498...

VALID 200326Z - 200430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM SEVERE TSTMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE LATE EVENING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM WATCHES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVER KY/TN BORDER AREA HAS LIKELY PASSED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ACROSS NRN TN MAY EXIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO...ESPECIALLY NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS WHERE
STORM-SCALE DYNAMICS MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED AMIDST RESIDUAL STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY. OVERALL...THE DOWNWARD TREND IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GIVEN
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE INFLUENCES
DRIVING SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE.

ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE MCS
COLD POOL OVER WRN KY AND NWRN TN. WHILE ISOLATED HAIL/WIND COULD
OCCUR WITH THIS MORE RECENT VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY BECOME MORE OF A PROBLEM INTO THE NIGHT. A
NUMBER OF FACTORS SUPPORT LOCALLY EXTREME CONVECTIVE RAIN ACROSS
THIS AREA INCLUDING A DEEP/WARM CLOUD LAYER...VERY SLOW STORM
PROPAGATION ...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION AMIDST
PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES.

..CARBIN.. 07/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36008827 36598807 36558367 36568294 36328325 35888379
            35668461 35768504 35808592 35668603 35638652 35868811
            36008827



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