[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 192342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192342
TNZ000-KYZ000-200115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 192342Z - 200115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR CONTINUED STORM
ORGANIZATION AS STORMS MOVE INTO N-CNTRL TN FROM SW/S-CNTRL KY. A WW
MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR DEPENDING ON TRENDS. STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

DISCUSSION...AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WW. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ACROSS SW/S-CNTRL KY SHOULD MOVE INTO
N-CNTRL TN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION /MLCAPE GREATER THAN 2500 J/KG/ SHOULD HELP COMPENSATE FOR
RATHER WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW AND ONLY MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
TO LEAD TO AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...IT IS
UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF STORMS WILL WEAKEN/BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE...THREAT COULD BE
SHORT-LIVED ACROSS N-CNTRL TN WITH A WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER OVER
MIDDLE TN. THE SAME PHILOSOPHY HOLDS TRUE FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NE
NEAR FRANKFORT AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR CONTINUED
ORGANIZATION. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..LEITMAN/CARBIN.. 07/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36668780 36598499 36588377 36088416 35568469 35368540
            35248687 35418806 36118817 36668780



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