[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 191821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191820
WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-191945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...W VA...SW VA...NW TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 191820Z - 191945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH EVOLVING
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS REGION
THROUGH 21-22Z...BUT THIS MAY REMAIN MOSTLY BEFORE SEVERE LEVELS.  A
WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...INITIATED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...  STORMS NORTH NORTHEAST OF JACKSON APPEAR TO HAVE
GENERATED A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL.  COUPLED WITH
CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...LIFT ON ITS LEADING EDGE
MAY MAINTAIN VIGOROUS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT AS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...AND WARM ADVECTION ON WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CONTRIBUTE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION.  FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE
SUBSTANTIVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE
QUESTION...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW.  HOWEVER...THREAT
FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
MITIGATED BY SOMEWHAT MODEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LACK OF LARGER
SUB CLOUD TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
AMBIENT FLOW FIELD.

..KERR/MEAD.. 07/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37908279 38178208 37868149 37028172 36378227 36268344
            36838351 37888347 37908279



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