[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061742
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-061915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1417
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY...WRN
TN...NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061742Z - 061915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN
KY/TN...AND NERN AR. A HOT BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE THE
OCCURRENCE OF A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THREAT WILL BE
TOO LIMITED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO AROUND 100F ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE LOCALLY
MIXED DOWN INTO THE LOW 60S OVER SRN IL. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOWERING CUMULUS
FROM SERN MO/SRN IL INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND SWRN IND. THESE
OBSERVED TRENDS...AS WELL AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE
HRRR...SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND THEN MOVE S-SWWD AROUND A MIDLEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS.

..GARNER/WEISS.. 07/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   38388894 37788710 36108742 35388911 35609037 36509105
            38089109 38388894



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