[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 051711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051711
SCZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-051845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL...NRN GA...FAR WRN SC...WRN NC...ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051711Z - 051845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER CORES SHOULD
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. WW ISSUANCE
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING
MLCAPES RANGING FROM 2000 J/KG IN ERN AL TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN ERN
TN. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S F ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES AND WEAK NLY FLOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW SWD
MOVING PULSE STORMS. THE STRONGER DOWNBURSTS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 07/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35878199 36128301 36028460 35338613 34438646 33418658
            32858527 33028466 33568427 34468259 34968182 35878199


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