[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 051514
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051514
WVZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-051645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN OH...SW WV...ERN KY...WRN VA...ERN TN...WRN
NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051514Z - 051645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW
ISSUANCE COULD BECOME NECESSARY ONCE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

DISCUSSION...A SHORT LINE SEGMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
IN NWRN WV IS LOCATED ON A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN VA. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES IN
THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE PATH OF THE LINE SEGMENT.
IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT CHARLESTON WV SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING ENOUGH FLOW IS PRESENT FOR AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY
BECOMING STEEP ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE
RATES ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 8.0 C/KM. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
FURTHER...THE LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 07/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON   38808157 38918235 38618299 37748334 36488338 36078282
            36068181 36538091 37678081 38438101 38808157



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