[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041802
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-041900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL / SRN MIDDLE TN / NRN GA / WRN NC / UPSTATE
SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 041802Z - 041900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.  PULSE
STRONG TO LOW-END SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLD POCKETS OF
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE/RADAR/SURFACE COMPOSITE SHOWS A GROWING CU
FIELD WITH SCTD STORMS DEVELOPING AS TEMPS WARM THRU THE 80S IN THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEG F FARTHER W
OVER NRN AL.  THIS HAS LED TO VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN A VERY WEAK WIND PROFILE --INDICATIVE OF A PULSE TSTM
ENVIRONMENT.  MODIFYING THE 12Z BMX/FFC RAOBS FOR MID 90S TEMPS WITH
A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT IN THE LOWER 60S YIELDS
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE.  WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.8 INCH
RANGE...COLLAPSING TSTM CORES VIA WATER LOADING WILL PROBABLY YIELD
ISOLD POCKETS OF WIND GUSTS 45-60 MPH CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 07/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   35268161 34328243 33448519 33448830 34168859 35338728
            35388431 36018207 35768158 35268161


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