[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011539
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011538
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-011715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 AM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...NWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441...

VALID 011538Z - 011715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT PERSISTS IN THE NEAR-TERM ACROSS
FAR SWRN VA. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH AS
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AND ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY PROPAGATES
E/SEWD. DOWNSTREAM WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF THIS OCCURS.

DISCUSSION...TSTM CLUSTER OVER FAR SWRN VA HAS GENERALLY SHRUNK IN
SPATIAL EXTENT DURING THE PAST HOUR WHILE CROSSING HIGHER TERRAIN.
STILL...FULL INSOLATION IS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN REACHED IN MODIFIED 12Z RNK RAOB WITH VERY
STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RECENT 59 KT WIND GUST MEASURED AT
KMKJ CONFIRMS THAT SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE APPEAR POOR IN
REPRESENTING THIS ONGOING CLUSTER. THUS UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER LARGE
IN HOW EXACTLY THE CLUSTER WILL EVOLVE AS STORM-SCALE/COLD POOL
PROCESSES DOMINATE. ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY FORM ALONG CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW TO THE SW AND ALSO EWD ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE
ALTOCUMULUS HAS PERSISTED IN THE WAKE OF SAT NIGHT CONVECTION.

..GRAMS.. 07/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   37118103 37438022 37327945 37157894 36727883 36297901
            35897943 35728000 35648063 35878142 36188222 36408238
            36548234 37118103


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