[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011327
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-011430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0827 AM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...NWRN NC...FAR NERN TN/SRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011327Z - 011430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM CLUSTER OVER FAR ERN KY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AS
INTENSE SURFACE HEATING OCCURS DOWNSTREAM WITHIN A POTENTIALLY
STRONG TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS E OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SEVERE
TSTM WATCH WILL BE PROPOSED SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...TSTM CLUSTER HAS INTENSIFIED OVER ERN KY. DOWNSTREAM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE 80S AND WILL REACH
THE 90S LATER THIS MORNING RESULTING IN STRONG BUOYANCY AMIDST
RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM AT 700-500 MB PER
12Z RNK/GSO RAOBS. WITH A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW NOTED
IN THE RNK/ILN RAOBS...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A DAMAGING WIND-PRODUCING
MCS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE HAIL APPEARS PROBABLE.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 07/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37748271 37678126 37457963 37227891 36967891 36547929
            36247968 35928002 35958054 36078164 36408268 36778326
            37248329 37748271



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