[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 230347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230347
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-230445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...

VALID 230347Z - 230445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.

PORTIONS OF WW 5 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 06Z
EXPIRATION WITH A NEW TORNADO WATCH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS AREAS
FARTHER E/S IN WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN/CNTRL MS...NWRN AL...AND PERHAPS
NERN LA.

BROKEN SQUALL LINE HAS ACCELERATED EWD ACROSS NERN AR ON APPROACH TO
THE MS RIVER...WITH A MORE GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION OCCURRING IN SERN
AR. LONGER-LIVED MESOCYCLONES HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED IN AR...WITH A
TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATELY BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES. THIS SUGGESTS
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EVOLVING INTO A COMPARATIVELY
GREATER DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER E/SE...A BAND OF SHOWERS HAS
SLOWLY DEEPENED FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA INTO N-CNTRL MS. THESE
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS AS
03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS NOTED A MODEST PRESSURE RISE/FALL
COUPLET...WELL AHEAD OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT BACK IN NERN TX. GIVEN
THE VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...IT APPEARS REASONABLE THAT A
COUPLE OF CELLS WOULD MATURE WITHIN THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND DEEPEN
INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GRAMS.. 01/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...
LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   32979229 34509084 35489018 36028982 36458875 36548791
            36448692 35818697 34208764 32798873 31199063 31049140
            31179188 31459223 32369236 32979229



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net