[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 171634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171633
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-171730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY AND WRN/MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171633Z - 171730Z

WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KY SWD INTO WRN AND
MIDDLE TN.

AT 16Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE LEADING EXTENT OF
STRONGER FORCING WITH THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRACKING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE TO PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A LINE OF
CONVECTION ADVANCING QUICKLY EWD INTO CENTRAL KY AND WRN/MIDDLE TN
THROUGH THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.  DESPITE A VERY WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH NRN EXTENT /MUCAPE 100-400 J PER KG/...STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH
AND LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THREATS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/BRIEF
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

FARTHER S OVER THE TN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATER GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BETTER MOISTURE RETURN.
HOWEVER...FORCING WILL TEND TO BE WEAKER WITH SRN EXTENT AND RESULT
IN LOWER COVERAGE FOR ROBUST TSTMS.

FARTHER E...DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG WITH EWD EXTENT
TODAY INTO ERN KY/WV...BUT VERY WEAK DESTABILIZATION WILL LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND THREAT.

..PETERS.. 01/17/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   38758467 38488341 36728490 35278643 35038714 35108894
            35408968 36128906 37098767 38758467


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