[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010521
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010520
NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-010645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TN/WESTERN VA/FAR WESTERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 010520Z - 010645Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY CONTINUE ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR WESTERN
VA/NORTHEAST TN/WESTERN NC. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT/DURATION OF THE SEVERE
THREAT SEEMS QUESTIONABLE.

STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AN EASTWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH THE BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
TN/FAR WESTERN VA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A RELATIVELY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY INFLUX CONTINUES...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING STEADY OR EVEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. GIVEN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
AND A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /MORRISTOWN WSR-88D VWP IS
INDICATIVE OF AN IMPLIED 200-350 M2 PER S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH/...A FEW
SUPERCELLS INCLUDING A BRIEF TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
IN THE SHORT-TERM EASTWARD TOWARD THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE
PERSISTENCE/EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION FARTHER EAST /OF THE
APPALACHIANS SPINE/ INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN VA
OVERNIGHT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT A SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

..GUYER.. 03/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...OHX...

LAT...LON   35968483 37108199 37158014 35967993 35288339 35968483



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