[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 291746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291746
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-291915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NRN LA...NRN MS...NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291746Z - 291915Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
SWEEP EWD WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. A
WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED BY 19-20Z.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST W OF SHREVEPORT LA INTO
NERN AR AT 17Z. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...THERE ARE POCKETS OF HEATING ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL LA INTO
CNTRL MS. GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

AMPLE DEEP LAYER FLOW EXISTS FOR FAST STORM MOTIONS AND SEVERE
WINDS...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE FRONT WILL BE
VEERED...WHICH MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY IF
MODE IS LINEAR. HOWEVER...BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/BACKED FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER ERN MS INTO NRN AL.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED CAPPING
INVERSION NEAR 700 MB...WHICH WILL LIMIT WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
AWAY FROM THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...FROM NRN
MS INTO NRN AL WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RELATIVE THREAT OF THIS TYPE OF
DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS SHOULD OCCUR...THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL.

..JEWELL.. 02/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   35278820 35178776 34848728 34528714 34238737 33918778
            33058941 32469101 31999227 31819314 31999353 32539361
            33429289 34319184 34899093 35198975 35298878 35278820

WWWW
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