[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 290953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290953
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-291130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN
IND...WRN KY AND NWRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 43...44...45...

VALID 290953Z - 291130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
43...44...45...CONTINUES.

AT 0925Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA CONTINUED TO SHOW A
FAST MOVING LINE OF TSTMS /ENE AT 50+ KT/...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...EXTENDING FROM SWRN IL SWWD THROUGH SERN MO
TO NORTH CENTRAL-NWRN AR.  RADAR TRENDS INDICATED THE NRN EXTENT OF
THE TSTMS WILL EXIT THE SWRN IND PORTION OF WW 44 BY 12Z...AND THE
WRN KY PORTION BY 13Z.  A NEW WW WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY THOSE
TIMES BASED ON DETAILS PROVIDED IN SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 177.

THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE QLCS REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AND STRONGLY SHEARED
/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-65 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 500-750 M2
PER S2/.  THESE PARAMETERS DICTATE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES DURING THE PRE-DAWN TIME
PERIOD AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

FARTHER S...THE SRN EXTENT OF WW 43 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11Z.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CONVECTION HAS TRIED TO DEVELOP WITH
SWD EXTENT DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT UPDRAFT SUSTAINABILITY
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO CAPPING.  HOWEVER...SINCE SIMILAR
CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THIS PART OF WRN AR...A
CONDITIONAL THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THIS PART OF WW 43.

..PETERS.. 02/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...
SGF...SHV...

LAT...LON   35219219 34399290 34339334 34319423 34439430 35189368
            35979277 36409219 37069082 38198983 39088951 39218873
            39108753 38178683 36748711 36508801 35828841 35378887
            35348982 35219219


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