[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241156
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-241330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN AL...CENTRAL/NRN GA...AND UPSTATE SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241156Z - 241330Z

A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR ISSUANCE FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN AL THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN GA INTO UPSTATE SC...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO WRN NC.  PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE BY 13-14Z IS
60-70 PERCENT.

IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUATION OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING THROUGH NRN AL...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA
SHOWED AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AL/WRN GA SINCE
1045Z.  COLD AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 850 MB HAS RESULTED IN A WEAKENING
OF THE CAP THAT WAS EVIDENT ON THE 24/00Z BHM/ATL SOUNDINGS AND NOW
ERODED PER 12Z BHM SOUNDING.  THUS...GIVEN A MOIST WARM SECTOR /PW
VALUES RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCH/ AND LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM...THE
MUCAPE IS ALREADY NEAR 1000 J/KG.  DESPITE A LACK OF STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TODAY...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150+ KT UPPER JET IN THE TN/OH
VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FURTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT ENEWD FROM
THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A CONTINUED INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING FROM AL THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN GA TO UPSTATE SC/NC.

STRENGTHENING WSWLY DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS /60-70 KT AT 700 MB AND
80-100 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL MAINTAIN STRONG BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORM DEVELOPMENT.  STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..PETERS.. 02/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   33428712 34318561 35618331 35568155 34818065 33658083
            32748291 32108446 31738584 31848690 32238741 33428712



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