[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 240701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240700
WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-240900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/CENTRAL AND SRN WV/ERN TN/FAR SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240700Z - 240900Z

THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BEING MONITORED
ACROSS ERN KY INTO PARTS OF SRN/CENTRAL WV AND SWD INTO ERN TN
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  WW MAY BE NEEDED...WITH
THE PROBABILITY OF ISSUANCE BEING 40 PERCENT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 06Z SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SERN IND/SRN OH...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SSWWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN
AND MS.  MOISTURE RETURN HAS CONTINUED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING 3-4 DEGREES
INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS ERN KY AND MIDDLE 50S IN ERN TN.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MODEST 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.5 C
PER KM OVER ERN KY/ERN TN/ AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO COOL GIVEN TIME OF DAY.  DESPITE RATHER WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AT THIS TIME OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...
AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMICS ARE SUPPORTING MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG-SEVERE TSTM OVER NERN
KY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING SSWWD ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE INTO SERN KY AND AT TIMES FARTHER SWD INTO NRN
AL/SERN TN.  AN INCREASE IN HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND INVOF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN KY INTO CENTRAL WV
AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT OVER ERN TN SUGGEST ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS.. 02/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   36808506 38218306 38488200 38298093 36728245 35078441
            35008534 35188622 35648617 36808506



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