[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 222343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222343
KYZ000-TNZ000-230115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0142
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222343Z - 230115Z

A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS WITHIN THIS LINE.

A LINE OF STORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A ZONE OF WEAK SFC CONFLUENCE. WHILE THERE IS
VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH DUE TO THE COOL/LOW DEWPOINT
ENVIRONMENT...UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK.
HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5 TO 7 C/KM AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /NEAR -22 C AT 500 MB AND AROUND -8 AT 700
MB/...SPORADIC EPISODES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN
THE STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR GREAT THAN 40
KT/...SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS
THE ENVIRONMENT COOLS AND BECOMES MORE STABLE.

..LEITMAN.. 02/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37408678 37978439 37708413 36658481 36618663 36708715
            37348685 37408678



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