[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 171925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171924
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-172130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CST MON DEC 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN TN...NRN MS...NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 171924Z - 172130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF WW 683 THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH ANY SVR THREAT EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL/SPORADIC...
THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH WW 683 MAY BE EXPANDED
SWD ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TN.

DISCUSSION...WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY
CONTINUE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF WW 683. MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH STRONG DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED...
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...THOUGH THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL MITIGATE THE SVR
THREAT. REGARDLESS...SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT APPEAR TO
EVOLVE ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN -- IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER
ASCENT -- WW 683 MAY BE EXPANDED SWD.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 12/17/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35018956 35338905 35708826 35768686 35748588 35738554
            35298575 34788711 34668826 34728924 35018956



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