[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 132215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132214
MSZ000-TNZ000-132345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN
IND AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 577...

VALID 132214Z - 132345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 577
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH MID EVENING OVER REMAINING
PARTS OF WW 577. TRENDS ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MS INTO SWRN TN.

DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN
GA...SRN AL THEN NWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN MS INTO WRN TN. A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR RESIDES IN VICINITY OF AND
WEST OF THIS FEATURE AND EAST OF COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN IL
SWWD THROUGH ERN AND SWRN AR INTO CNTRL TX. DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED THETA-E AXIS FROM ERN AR...WRN
TN INTO NRN MS. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN 35-45 KT DEEP SHEAR THAT IS
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY
THREAT BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AS STORMS ADVANCE EWD THEY WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE WINDS ARE BACKED TO SELY.
GREENWOOD MS VWP INDICATES 48 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 130-150 0-1 KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. WHILE EFFECTIVE HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY LARGE DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...0-1 KM SHEAR MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
ALONG AND EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 08/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34958830 33098886 32859043 33389065 35338949 34958830



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