[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 132049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132049
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-132145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF SERN TN AND NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 576...

VALID 132049Z - 132145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 576
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR HAIL EVENT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AL INTO ADJACENT WEST CENTRAL
GA WHERE THE NRN EXTENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SRN EXTENT OF
GREATER BULK SHEAR OVERLAP.  HOWEVER...FARTHER N INTO NWRN GA AND
SERN TN...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
A DIMINISHING TREND...ALLOWING THE REMAINDER OF WW 576 TO LIKELY BE
CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE SCHEDULED 01Z EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN LATE AFTERNOON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
REGIONAL RADARS WITH WARMING CLOUDS TOPS AND WEAKENING
REFLECTIVITIES...RESPECTIVELY ARE VERIFYING THE EXPECTED SCENARIO
FOR FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  THE MCS
AFFECTING THE NERN EXTENT OF WW 576 WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AWAY
FROM GREATER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY LOCATED TO THE S/SW.  ALTHOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE STRONGER ACROSS NERN
AL/NWRN GA INTO SERN TN...THE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES AND SUBSEQUENT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS.. 08/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   33588555 35248581 35798521 35808468 33608465 33588555



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