[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 030031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030030
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT THU AUG 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NRN AR...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY...FAR
NWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 030030Z - 030200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MCS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN IL MAY INTENSIFY THIS
EVENING AS IT PROPAGATES SEWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO FORM
SW OF THE MCS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN MO...NRN AR AND WRN KY. BOTH
AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS LOCATED OVER CNTRL IL. BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN KY AND MIDDLE TN...WHILE
WEAK FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDED SWWD TOWARD SWRN MO. MCS THAT
IS TIED TO THE MCV OVER IL IS ENCOUNTERING DRIER MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS CENTERED OVER WRN IND...WHICH HAS INHIBITED A
GREATER SVR THREAT SO FAR. HOWEVER...WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...RESIDES S OF
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER FAR SRN IL/WRN KY. SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES SWLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KT DURING THE
NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION...WHICH WILL AID IN THE
ADVECTION OF THE HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS TOWARD SWRN IND AND PROMOTE
A SEWD PROPAGATION OF THE MCS. THIS MAY YIELD AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL OVER THE LWR OH RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW.

FARTHER TO THE SW OVER SRN MO/NRN AR...ONE STORM BRIEFLY DEVELOPED S
OF SGF DURING THE LAST HR...BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF AN EML ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH A COOLING BOUNDARY
LAYER AND NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
NEXT FEW HRS DUE TO INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LLJ. THE 00Z SGF RAOB SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY..AND 30 KT OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT STRONG/SVR MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. CONVECTIVE/ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED HERE AS
WELL.

..GARNER/HART.. 08/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...
SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35579348 35999393 37069325 38229027 38768673 38068613
            36858732 35948966 35469243 35579348


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