[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021647
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT THU AUG 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/FAR SRN IL AND EXTREME PARTS OF NERN
AR...NWRN TN AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021647Z - 021815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF SERN MO...FAR SRN IL
INTO EXTREME PORTIONS OF NERN AR...NWRN TN AND WRN KY.  DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...MID-LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED INVOF SZL IN WEST CENTRAL MO...WITH A WARM FRONT
DRAPED EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY --- N OF BLV AND MVN IN SRN IL TO NEAR
OWB AND THEN EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KY TO SERN OH.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED SWD FROM SERN MO THROUGH FAR WRN TN INTO MS.
STRONG HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR LOCATED S OF THE WARM FRONT
AND BETWEEN CLOUD DEBRIS ATTENDANT TO AN MCV OVER NRN MO AND A
SECOND COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL AR TO NRN MS IS SUPPORTING STRONG
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS NOT YET SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...50 KT WNWLY
MIDLEVEL WINDS /PER EAX WSR-88D IN THE 4-6 KM AGL LAYER/ ALONG THE
SRN EXTENT OF THE NRN MO MCV WILL REACH SERN MO THIS AFTERNOON
STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.

FAIRLY DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE WARM FRONT SUGGEST LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z WRF-NSSL 4
KM.  REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS SERN MO SUGGESTING ASCENT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
ALREADY REACHING THIS REGION.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE.

..PETERS/WEISS.. 08/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36249092 37309132 38169128 38729078 38818977 38598890
            37568808 36288803 35988936 36078994 36249092



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