[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011852
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-011945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1670
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...WRN NC...FAR SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011852Z - 011945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER PARTS OF MIDDLE
TN AND THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLUSTERS MAY
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...POSING A RISK FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL. A WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. PARTS OF THIS REGION WILL ALSO
BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK AT 20Z.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS BUILDING CU/TOWERING CU
FIELD NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF FAR SWRN VA...AS STRONG HEATING HAS ERODED MOST CINH.
THREE MESOSCALE FEATURES OF INTEREST ARE APPARENT...INCLUDING 1) A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN KY...2) A LINE OF CU ORIENTED
SSW TO NNE ACROSS ERN TN ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE
FROM EARLIER TODAY AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...AND 3) A WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ENTERING ERN KY. EACH OF THESE
FEATURES SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S/ IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG...DESPITE
RELATIVELY WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES.
ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE MIDLEVEL FLOW /30-35 KTS/ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
FOR ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS TO EVOLVE AS TSTMS
CONSOLIDATE/MERGE...PROPAGATING TOWARDS THE SSE. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND MAY
REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A WW SHOULD CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE.

..ROGERS/CARBIN.. 08/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   36538117 35858204 35258295 35028401 35048533 35418624
            36028656 36528649 36578500 36528378 36568345 36668328
            36878286 37018207 36998140 36538117



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