[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 301855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301855
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-302100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR...FAR SWRN TN...EXTREME NW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301855Z - 302100Z

THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY HAS INCREASED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SLOWLY PROGRESSING SEWD THROUGH AR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WW AT THIS TIME.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW TO NE
ACROSS CNTRL AR INTO FAR WRN TN /FROM DEQ NEWD TO DYR/. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH AN
INTENSIFYING CELL OVER PIKE COUNTY. SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS HEATING CONTINUES UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENT SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE
VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FLOW IS WEAK /EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AOB 30 KTS/ AND ONLY MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION APPEARS
MOST PROBABLE. MULTICELL CLUSTER WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT BRIEF
ORGANIZATION WITH A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
ADDITIONALLY...MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES /PWATS AOA 1.50 INCHES/
AND SOME POTENTIAL TRAINING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGEST HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY WITH RAIN RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

..MOSIER.. 04/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34309418 34859281 35699033 35698965 34878939 34538985
            34089085 33949127 33319371 33219419 34309418



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