[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 262153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262152
TNZ000-262315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262152Z - 262315Z

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
WRN TN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2130Z SHOW
THAT A NARROW WEDGE OF STRONGER HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN A COLD FRONT ENTERING WRN TN
AND A ZONE OF STRATUS OVER NRN MS/AL AND SRN PORTIONS OF TN. WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S...AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION...MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 2500 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
OR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL WLYS VEERING TO NWLY
ALOFT...WHICH IS AIDING IN EFFECTIVE BULK WIND DIFFERENCE VALUES
FROM 30-40 KT. THUS...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRATUS AND A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER S OF STORM INITIATION...STORM PERSISTENCE MAY BE
COMPROMISED...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR A WW. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..GARNER.. 04/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

LAT...LON   35868968 36398818 36148724 35578693 35108858 35258976
            35868968



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