[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 051754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051754
TNZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-051930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT THU APR 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051754Z - 051930Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR
POSSIBLE WW OVER PORTIONS OF ERN TN AND NRN GA.

COLD CORE MIDLEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NERN AR AT 17-18Z...AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL BY EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED OVER WRN TN...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD INTO ERN TN...WRN NC
AND NRN SC. AS THE MIDLEVEL LOW ADVANCES EWD DURING THE DAY...THE
SURFACE FRONT MAY SAG SWD TOWARD SERN TN/NRN GA AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE REDEVELOPS NEAR COASTAL SC/GA. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE INDICATES AIRMASS OVER MIDDLE/ERN TN IS EXPERIENCING MODEST
DESTABILIZATION AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM INTO THE 70S. AS A
RESULT...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 500-1000
J/KG...WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF
THE SURFACE FRONT. IN ADDITION...MIDLEVEL SWLYS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED
LOW ARE AROUND 30-40 KT...WHICH WILL AID IN MARGINAL STORM
ORGANIZATION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH THE THREAT POSSIBLY
SPREADING SWD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD NRN GA WITH THE
ADVANCING FRONT.

..GARNER.. 04/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35018583 36608474 36598301 35988258 34258417 34158543
            35018583


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