[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 051709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051709
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-051845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT THU APR 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS SERN MO...SWRN KY...NERN AR...WRN AND MIDDLE
TN...NRN MS AND NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051709Z - 051845Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT MAY
REQUIRE ONE OR MORE WATCHES THIS AFTERNOON.

WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY
BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE OF THE OZARK PLATEAU CLOSED LOW...
THE CENTER OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY 19-21Z.  THE
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A BIT
UNCLEAR...BUT THE MOST SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO BE
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER SURFACE HEATING BENEATH THE
DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
PORTIONS OF ADJACENT STATES.  STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS
BENEATH 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEAR HIGHEST.

..KERR.. 04/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...SGF...

LAT...LON   36949124 37078971 36788770 36488649 35538575 34058652
            33798839 34579020 35469050 36209100 36949124



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