[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 260546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260545
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-260815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN KY...SRN AND ERN IND...SRN AND WRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 260545Z - 260815Z

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW CENTERED OVER CNTRL IND...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
SYSTEM ALOFT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...AND N OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT.

MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATE A
STABLE SURFACE LAYER GENERALLY N OF THE OH RIVER...BUT WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH 70S F EXISTED FARTHER S ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL
KY INTO MS.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NOW FROM SRN IND INTO
WRN TN. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY S OF THE OH
RIVER...SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF TRANSPORTING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
RESULTING IN STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ANY TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
TO BE MAXIMIZED NOW IN PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING LOW...AND SHOULD
GENERALLY WANE WITH TIME.  IF STORMS OVER TN/KY/OH CAN PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND DEVELOP BETTER STRUCTURE SUCH AS BOWS...A WATCH MAY BE
CONSIDERED.

..JEWELL.. 09/26/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   36638756 36848737 37738679 38438595 39208568 39758563
            40908554 40908485 40748410 40288344 39898319 38888347
            38148383 37238443 36758501 36408563 36148634 36288716
            36638756


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