[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141744
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-141915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141744Z - 141915Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WRN TN AND MAY
EXPAND SWD INTO NRN MS THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND A MARGINAL WIND
DAMAGE THREAT MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING FROM NEAR THE BOOTHEEL OF MO
SWD ACROSS WRN TN IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW NEAR THE
NRN EDGE OF A PLUME OF MOISTURE. SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F ALONG THE
MOIST AXIS ARE HELPING TO CREATE A POCKET OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN MS EXTENDING NWD INTO WRN TN. SBCAPE VALUES
ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD
AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EWD INTO SCNTRL TN THIS AFTERNOON. WSR-88D
VWPS IN WRN TN CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 35 KT
RANGE SUGGESTING ENOUGH SHEAR EXISTS FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
ALTHOUGH HAIL MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
THREAT COULD ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY AS THE CELLS BECOME INCREASINGLY
SFC-BASED THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 09/14/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   34478993 34358917 34758794 35358759 35888773 36178843
            36048948 35788989 35409003 34989009 34478993



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