[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031729
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-031900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WV...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL VA...FAR NWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031729Z - 031900Z

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WV AND WRN/CNTRL VA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK SLOWLY SWD WITH STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATED CONVECTION WAS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WV AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP SWD WITH CONTINUED HEATING ACROSS WRN
AND CNTRL VA INTO FAR NWRN NC. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...SBCAPE VALUES WERE ALREADY APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ACROSS
THIS REGION. ADDITIONALLY...MORNING ROABS FROM RNK AND GSO INDICATED
AN EML ABOVE THE 850 MB LAYER WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7 C/KM. COUPLED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AT LEAST
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS PRESENTING MAINLY A DOWNBURST
THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS.

GIVEN A LACK OF STRONGER FLOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED.

..LEITMAN.. 09/03/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   38618053 38838039 39038000 39047983 39037932 38977896
            38707871 38257850 37937848 37517855 37027878 36757912
            36417986 36228069 36108140 36068183 36148194 36298191
            36668168 37008154 38008099 38618053



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