[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021831
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-021930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WV...WRN VA...WRN NC...FAR NWRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021831Z - 021930Z

STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. STRONG...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY BE TIED TO HIGHER TERRAIN BUT WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE S/SEWD
WITH TIME INTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.

A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM SWRN NC NEAR AVL NWD TOWARDS ROA IN
WRN VA. WHILE THIS REGION WAS CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW
/20-30 KT BULK SHEAR AT BEST/ SBCAPE VALUES WERE APPROACHING
2500-3500 J/KG. THIS WILL AID IN VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT AND WITH
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 25 DEGREES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

12Z RAOBS FROM GSO AND RNK SUGGEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME WARMING ALOFT...FURTHER HINDERING LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION.  HOWEVER...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND POTENTIALLY VERY
STRONG UPDRAFTS...STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW STORM MOTION WITH MEAN WIND
VECTORS FROM THE N/NW. EXPECT STORMS TO SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM HIGHER
TERRAIN TOWARD LOWER FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT AROUND
15-20 MPH.

..LEITMAN.. 09/02/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   37648143 37878138 38318122 38578105 38648078 38668030
            38598004 38387972 38007964 37867964 37187974 36168017
            35358110 34938199 34758264 34698317 34738343 34868370
            35078392 35298388 35568368 36178231 37648143



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