[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261256
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EASTERN MS AND NORTHERN AL/SOUTHEAST
TN/NORTHWEST GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261256Z - 261430Z

A SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WINDS...MAY INCREASE EARLY TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
EASTERN MS INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN AL/NORTHWEST GA AND SOUTHEAST TN.
CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.

WITHIN A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE...A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF
TSTMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MS INTO NORTHERN AL/EAST-CENTRAL TN HAS
SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. CONTINUED
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS/JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT...COUPLED WITH A
HEATING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO A
SPATIAL/INTENSITY INCREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL INTO GA/EASTERN TN. THE 12Z BIRMINGHAM
OBSERVED RAOB WAS INDICATIVE OF A VERY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED
AIRMASS /2200 J PER KG MLCAPE/ THAT EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH THE RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AL INTO TN EXPECTED TO MODIFY/DESTABILIZE WITH TIME.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
VEER/WEAKEN WITH TIME INTO MIDDAY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW COUPLED WITH INITIALLY AMPLE LOW LEVEL SRH WILL SUPPORT A BOW
ECHO/SUPERCELL THREAT WITH ASSOCIATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN ADDITION
TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL.

..GUYER.. 05/26/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33258877 34928733 35868524 35328412 32728630 33258877



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