[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 252046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252045
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-252215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252045Z - 252215Z

ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY INCREASE INTO THIS
EVENING AND LIKELY REQUIRE A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE...SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE TIMING OF SUSTAINED TSTM INITIATION E/S
OF WW/S 370/371 ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO NRN AL.

SMALL CB/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF
SWRN TN/NRN MS WITHIN A LONG-LIVED BUT DIMINISHING STRATOCU DECK
THAT ARCS FROM WRN TN INTO NRN LA. WITH STRONGER FORCED ASCENT
LIKELY HOLDING WEST OF THIS REGION...APPARENT WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THE LACK OF SIGNAL IN CONVECTION-ALLOWING
HRRR/WRF-NMM GUIDANCE SUGGEST UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO BECOME
SUSTAINED DESPITE A VERY BUOYANT AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS PER MODIFIED
18Z BNA RAOB. HOWEVER...IF TSTMS DO BECOME SUSTAINED...THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...AND
NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 21-22Z.
OTHERWISE...THE EVENTUAL NEWD PROGRESSION OF ONGOING SUPERCELLS OVER
CNTRL AR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36228815 36668808 36578584 35728592 35138612 34538662
            34318715 34418789 34548815 36228815


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