[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 250549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250548
ILZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-250645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MO/FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN IL
INTO NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 250548Z - 250645Z

ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS A LARGE
PART OF EASTERN MO/PERHAPS SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN IL AND
PERHAPS NORTHEAST AR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN. DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AN INTENSE/SLIGHTLY FRAGMENTED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
LINE...INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED/IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT
SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MO/NORTHWEST AR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. A 56 KT WIND
GUST WAS RECENTLY NOTED AT FORT SMITH AR...WITH 53 KT MEASURED AT
CHANUTE KS IN ADDITION A NUMBER OF MEASURED 40+ KT GUSTS.

AMID AMPLE DVPA WITH VERY STRONG AND A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELD /ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1 KM/...CONTINUED STORM
CONSOLIDATION/UPSCALE GROWTH IS LIKELY WITH AN INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED/WELL-SUSTAINED QLCS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF A
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY/RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN MO ESE INTO CENTRAL IL...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS VERY MOIST/RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AMID AROUND 70F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT CONCERN...IN
ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR
QLCS-EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES GIVEN THE
INCREASINGLY HIGH DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SRH.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39739335 40709146 40238979 39228915 36658889 35059203
            37079177 38479253 39739335


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