[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241024
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-241200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/EASTERN TN INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241024Z - 241200Z

A SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM OF HAIL/PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...AT
LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE/EASTERN TN INTO
SOUTHERN/EASTERN KY.

A FORWARD PROPAGATING/NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS
EVOLVED INTO MIDDLE TN OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONG MIXED LAYER ALOFT/CORRIDOR
OF MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AS PER REGIONAL 00Z OBSERVED
RAOBS AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RUC SOUNDINGS. WITH SOURCE REGION MUCAPE
ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG...MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT CONCERN. A RELATIVELY STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODEST POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING /PER RUC
SOUNDINGS/ SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WIND THREAT...ALTHOUGH MODERATELY
STRONG MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW/RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS TO THE SURFACE.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35968721 37038625 37618435 37298294 36118339 35238591
            35968721


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