[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231816
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-231945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN-NE AR...SE MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231816Z - 231945Z

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD
EXIST ACROSS NE AR AND SE MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.

AN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM NEAR ST
LOUIS SWWD ACROSS SRN MO INTO NRN AR. THESE STORMS ARE BEING
SUPPORTED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF A 35 TO 45 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS SE MO AND NE AR WHERE SBCAPE
VALUES ARE IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE LITTLE ROCK WSR-88D VWP SHOULD
SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS IN THE
LINE. SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED THREAT
FOR BRIEF TORNADOES MAY ALSO PERSIST. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH THE ERN MOST CELLS WITHIN THE MCS
WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED BY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE CELLS APPROACH THE MS RIVER WHERE INSTABILITY IS
STRONGEST.

..BROYLES.. 05/23/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35838970 35699123 35689222 36139264 36549250 36649179
            36719098 36729021 36678971 36358946 35838970


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