[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221018
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-221115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN AR TO THE ADJACENT MS VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221018Z - 221115Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST/POTENTIALLY EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
HALVES OF AR...TOWARD THE ADJACENT MS VALLEY INCLUDING THE MO
BOOTHEEL/WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY.

COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST BRANCH OF A SOMEWHAT
SPLIT/MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE
INCREASE OF ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALOFT...WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY VICINITY. ADEQUATE SHEAR THROUGH THE
CLOUD BEARING LAYER COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STRONG SOURCE REGION
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SOME TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL TO SEVERE
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST UPDRAFTS.

..GUYER.. 05/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33489401 34969338 36189078 36428926 35318874 33539155
            33489401


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