[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101522
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101521
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-101715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...SRN OH...ERN KY...SRN WV...WRN VA...NERN
TN AND EXTREME NWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101521Z - 101715Z

SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER A PORTION
OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY 17Z. SUPERCELLS AND
STORM CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN SC NWWD THROUGH ERN
KY...EXTREME SWRN OH INTO CNTRL IND. WARM SECTOR SOUTH AND WEST OF
THIS BOUNDARY IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS. STRONG DIABATIC
WARMING WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF EML PLUME
BENEATH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN
CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS SURFACE
LAYER DESTABILIZES...MAINLY ALONG ERN FRINGE OF CAPPING EML PLUME IN
VICINITY OF NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL WINDS/HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN
WEAK/SMALL...BUT VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 05/10/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON   40218395 38868225 36368104 35568214 37208396 38918632
            40108565 40218395


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