[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 012243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012243
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-020015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NWRN LA...SRN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 262...

VALID 012243Z - 020015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 262 CONTINUES.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH 02Z WILL EXIST FROM
NERN TX INTO EXTREME NWRN LA AND SWRN/SCNTRL AR.

TSTMS HAVE INITIATED INVOF A SFC LOW NEAR TYLER TX WHERE MLCAPES OF
2500 J/KG AND 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXIST.  STORMS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO GROW INTO SUBSTANTIAL ENTITIES OFF THE EWD MOVING COLD
FRONT BUT COULD DO SO YET EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR
TWO WOULD BE PRIMARY SVR THREATS IF A SUSTAINED STORM CAN DEVELOP
AND REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NERN TX INTO SWRN/SCNTRL
AR.

OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM A DIMINISHING DISCRETE STORM OVER WRN
TN...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SRN AR INTO NWRN MS/WRN TN
REMAINS INERT WITH RESPECT TO SFC-BASED STORMS.  EXPECT THAT
ELEVATED STORMS WILL INCREASE N OF THIS FEATURE FROM EXTREME NERN TX
INTO SRN/CNTRL AR WITH TIME THIS EVENING.  WHILE SOME HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
/REF MKCSWOMCD #684/.

..RACY.. 05/01/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   36298948 36248809 35318765 34508794 34378893 34118999
            33629095 33159176 32399316 31459464 31389563 31449666
            31899705 32419667 33199588 34429408 35929064 36298948



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