[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 300114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300113
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-300315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR...NRN MS...SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 300113Z - 300315Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR...NRN MS...AND SWRN TN THIS
EVENING. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS...A WW
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AUGMENTED BY A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE /ONE JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM NRN OK AND THE OTHER JET
STREAK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/ WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
REGION THIS EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8 C PER KM/ WERE
NOTED IN THE 00Z KLZK SOUNDING...WITH RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATING MUCAPE VALUES AOA 250 J/KG OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. CLOUD-BEARING WIND SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40 TO 50 KT
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE
ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE DEEPER/MORE PERSISTENT CORES.
HOWEVER...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY CONFINED FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...ANY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON
AN ISOLATED BASIS...AND THUS NO WW IS PLANNED NORTH OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 74 ATTM.

..COHEN.. 03/30/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34218854 34278966 34269061 34069112 33659152 33499206
            33649263 33989293 34409303 34939286 35389251 35629172
            35688987 35468843 34708819 34218854

WWWW
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