[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 262222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262222
TNZ000-NCZ000-262345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262222Z - 262345Z

ISOLATED HAIL...SOME SEVERE...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS MIDDLE TO ERN TN.  GIVEN THE LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THIS
THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO EXTREME NWRN AL WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN
AL AND THEN DRAPED SEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL AL/WEST CENTRAL GA...WITH
A FURTHER EWD EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL GA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS TN...WHILE LIGHTNING
DATA/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED ONGOING CONVECTION/TSTMS OVER
MUCH OF TN.  GIVEN THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS ACTIVITY IS
ELEVATED...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING MUCAPE 100-500 J/KG
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-40 KT.

FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH TRACKING
EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WAA N OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING AFFECTING MIDDLE AND
ERN TN.  WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAKER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
LIMIT THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.  HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF BULK SHEAR
SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE FOR ORGANIZATION AND THUS POSE
AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS.. 03/26/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35028470 35118806 35778862 36018797 36288643 36348475
            36188325 35008392 35028470



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