[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231938
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-232015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TN/NWRN NC/WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 231938Z - 232015Z

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS NERN
TN...NWRN NC...AND WRN VA THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS CURRENTLY BEING
COORDINATED.

MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN TN AND SERN KY INTO SRN WV INVOF
AN 850-MB MOISTURE GRADIENT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED
EWD OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA AFTER 20Z. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH
THE CONVECTION...GIVEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C PER KM AND
MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J PER KG...ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 50 TO 60 KT.

WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...OTHER SEVERE HAZARDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
SPECIFICALLY...ACROSS NERN TN...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED DUE TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
HOWEVER...AS THIS STRATUS EVENTUALLY ERODES...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS NERN TN WILL
INCREASE...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. THUS...A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING COORDINATED FOR PORTIONS
OF NERN TN. ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS NWRN NC...AREAS OF INSOLATION
THROUGH THE DAY HAVE YIELDED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S...ALONG
WITH STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THIS
REGION...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..COHEN.. 03/23/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   35878139 35828256 36448275 37268155 37458090 37358039
            36678051 35878139



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net