[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231840
TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-231945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TN...NRN AL...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231840Z - 231945Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS TN THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CORES AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. A WW APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WRN TN EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MS RIVER IN
SE MO. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THE NOSE OF A 75
TO 95 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S F ALONG WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND
300 M2/S2 MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY IF
SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREA AND 500
TEMPS IN THE -14C TO -18C RANGE WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH
THE STRONGER CORES.

..BROYLES.. 03/23/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35618410 34958542 34688776 34788897 35028966 35888920
            36308866 36638781 36628582 36538411 35618410


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