[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241758
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-242000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1374
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...FAR NWRN GA...PORTIONS OF SRN
TN...FAR ERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241758Z - 242000Z

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SPORADIC
OCCURRENCES OF DMGG WINDS...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL. SHOULD ONE OR MORE CORRIDORS OF ORGANIZED SVR THREAT
BECOME EVIDENT...THEN THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FRONT HAS EFFECTIVELY
BEEN SHUNTED SWD OVER PORTIONS OF ERN AR BY THE COLD POOL ATTENDANT
TO A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DIVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MO INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...AUGMENTED BY THE COLD POOL CIRCULATION...IS ALLOWING
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AMIDST MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000
TO 3500 J/KG PER 12Z JACKSON AND BIRMINGHAM OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
MODIFIED FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...STRONGLY AIDED BY RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -- I.E. MEAN-LAYER MIXING RATIO OF
15.2 G PER KG WITHIN THE LOWEST 100 MB ACCORDING TO THE 12Z
BIRMINGHAM SOUNDING. THIS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS...WITH SOME THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE GREATER SVR THREAT WILL EMANATE FROM
INTENSE WET MICROBURSTS...GIVEN DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.
AREA VWP DATA DEPICT MODEST MID-LEVEL WLY TO WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS / MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTERS...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE MERGING COLD POOLS BECOME
ESTABLISHED. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS
COULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCED.

..COHEN.. 06/24/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33128814 33068983 33459127 34189139 34979066 35488992
            35518805 35508696 35298612 34908490 34568478 34088496
            33718547 33388644 33128814

WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net