[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211811
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-211915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1340
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV/KY/TN...WRN VA/NC/SC...NERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211811Z - 211915Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND HAIL WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME...BUT COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AMPLE SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
FROM ERN OH SWD INTO ERN GA/THE CAROLINAS...WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPENSATING FOR MIXING...AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS REMAINING FIRMLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F. GIVEN STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM PER AREA 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
AND 18Z DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...OCCASIONALLY STRONG
UPDRAFTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE APPEARS
TO BE SUPPRESSING MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD A STRONGER
UPDRAFT BE ATTAINED...MODEST WNWLY FLOW ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE IN WV/VA MAY ALLOW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS TO PROGRESS
ENEWD WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY WEAK FLOW FARTHER S MAY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
GRADUALLY PROGRESSES ENEWD...ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO PROGRESS
EWD TO THE COAST. THEREFORE...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..HURLBUT.. 06/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   34958090 34268228 34488345 35268397 36018327 37288181
            38778051 38987983 38707914 37797897 34958090


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