[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 191047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191046
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-191145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN IL...FAR SERN MO...SRN IND...AND
WRN/CENTRAL KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 510...

VALID 191046Z - 191145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 510 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES ACROSS WW
510 ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOW ECHO...WHILE COUNTIES IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM CAN CONTINUE TO BE CANCELLED AS THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT DIMINISHES WITH WWD EXTENT.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED EWD MOVING
BOW ECHO ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION /AFFECTING FAR SERN
IL...FAR SERN MO INTO SRN IND AND WRN KY AT 1025Z/.  ALTHOUGH LATEST
TRENDS INDICATED A RELATIVE SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT THAN OBSERVED ABOUT
1 HOUR AGO /AROUND 930Z/...THE CURRENT 45+ KT FORWARD SPEED OF THE
BOW INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  THE APEX OF THE BOW...NOW MOVING THROUGH
FAR SWRN IND...SHOULD REACH THE ERN EXTENT OF WW 510 BY 13Z.

MOST OF THE BOW REMAINS CONTAINED WITHIN WW 510.  HOWEVER...THE NRN
EXTENT OF THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING ENEWD AT 40 KT AND AS OF
1030Z BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE INDIANA COUNTIES JUST N OF THIS WATCH.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MODERATE INSTABILITY RESIDING ACROSS SWRN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL IND SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS THIS NRN EXTENT OF THE LINE MOVES ALONG
AND JUST N OF WW 510.  HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED
INSTABILITY IS MUCH WEAKER INTO SERN IND...WITH THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM SWRN IND INTO CENTRAL KY.  THIS LATTER
FACTOR WOULD SUGGEST AN EVENTUAL SEWD TURN OF THE ONGOING BOW ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL KY.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW
ISSUANCE ACROSS SRN IND...BUT CURRENT ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS SUGGEST
THIS IS UNLIKELY.

..PETERS.. 06/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   36518959 37058906 37328835 38298806 39108828 39238791
            39248680 39188558 38848523 38338492 37278485 36738493
            36598517 36518959



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net